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Abstract
BackgroundWe analysed regionalised ECHAM6 climate data for the North German Plains (NGP) in two time slots from 1981 to 2010 and 2041 to 2070.ResultsThe annual mean temperature will increase significantly (by about 2 °C) that will result in shorter growing periods since the sum of degree days until harvest will be reached earlier. Even if the amount of total precipitation does not change there appears to be a shift towards increased winter precipitation and thus noticeable reduced summer precipitation.ConclusionsThrough the example of winter wheat we show a future limitation of water availability if yields are to be maintained or even increase.
Highlights
We analysed regionalised ECHAM6 climate data for the North German Plains (NGP) in two time slots from 1981 to 2010 and 2041 to 2070
Since rainfall during the growing period (Pveg) is not a meaningful parameter for analysing possible water deficit of winter wheat, we introduced the precipitation during main growing period (Pm-veg) as a parameter of interest; Pm-veg is defined by the amount of precipitation measured from May 1 until harvest date
Harvest dates were reasonably well predicted by our simple model
Summary
We analysed regionalised ECHAM6 climate data for the North German Plains (NGP) in two time slots from 1981 to 2010 and 2041 to 2070. Extreme yield drops in Europe in 2003 (loss of 13 billion Euros) were associated with an environmental temperature increase of nearly 6 °C above the long-term mean and below average precipitation of approximately 300 mm [17]. Many authors [9, 11, 12] show there is a general increase in winter precipitation, visible in predicted climate data. Meinke et al [12] show an increase in winter precipitation with regional climate models, for North Germany, of +22 %, but a decrease in summer of −17 %. We could expect reduced summer rainfall and consecutively increased risk of yield losses due to increased water deficit of field crops. Aim of this study is to evaluate if there may arise serious problems and answer the following questions: 1. Is there a relevant change by comparing the status quo with current climate projections?
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