Rainfall-Induced Landslides from Initialization to Post-Failure Flows: Stochastic Analysis with Machine Learning

Abstract

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a severe hazard around the world due to their sudden occurrence, as well as their widespread influence and runout distance. Considering the spatial variability of soil, stochastic analysis is often conducted to give a probability description of the runout. However, rainfall-induced landslides are complex and time-consuming for brute-force Monte Carlo analyses. Therefore, new methods are required to improve the efficiency of stochastic analysis. This paper presents a framework to investigate the influence and runout distance of rainfall-induced landslides with a two-step simulation approach. The complete process, from the initialization of instability to the post-failure flow, is simulated. The rainfall infiltration process and initialization of instability are first solved with a coupled hydro-mechanical finite element model. The post-failure flow is simulated using the coupled Eulerian–Lagrangian method, wherein the soil can flow freely in fixed Eulerian meshes. An equivalent-strength method is used to connect two steps by considering the effective stress of unsaturated soil. A rigorous method has been developed to accurately quantify the influence and runout distance via Eulerian analyses. Several simulations have been produced, using three-dimensional analyses to study the shapes of slopes and using stochastic analysis to consider uncertainty and the spatial variability of soils. It was found that a two-dimensional analysis assuming plain strain is generally conservative and safe in design, but care must be taken to interpret 2D results when the slope is convex in the longitudinal direction. The uncertainty and spatial variability of soils can lead to the statistic of influence and runout distance. The framework of using machine-learning models as surrogate models is effective in stochastic analysis of this problem and can greatly reduce computational effort.