Rainfall variation over Sinai Peninsula and its teleconnection to El Niño sea surface temperature

Abstract

This study aims at investigating the spatial and temporal variability of the seasonal rainfall over Sinai Peninsula, Egypt, relying on rainfall data taken from gridded data of four gauge stations for 35 years. Moreover, this study determines the teleconnection between the seasonal rainfall and equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (El Niño SST) over El Arish and Wadi Watir. Due to non-stationary characteristics of Sinai rainfall, this study employs the Wavelet Principal Component Analysis (WPCA) technique. According to the spatial characteristics of January, February and March (JFM), and October, November and December (OND) rainfall seasons, Sinai Peninsula can be divided into two zones: northern zone along the coastal area of the Mediterranean, and central-southern zone. The WPC signals showed that the dominant frequency period of Sinai rainfall ranged 2–8 years. Using Wavelet Coherence (WC), the study found a strong teleconnection between the seasonal rainfall over El Arish and Wadi Watir as well and El Niño SST at a 3-month lead time. The study results will improve the forecasting skills of flash water events over Sinai Peninsula, particularly, the northern zone in order to take suitable precautions to eliminate their impacts.