Rainfall Variation and Changing Pattern of Agricultural Cycle

Alam Alam

doi:10.3844/ajessp.2011.82.89

Abstract

Problem statement: The decision of crop selection and the output of agricultural production are highly determined by the environmental factors, especially rainfall and water availability. In the tropical area, particularly in Malaysia, influences of these exogenous variables are so high that overall agricultural productions are now vulnerable. Crops are affected through rainfall in two different ways-high and low rainfalls. Avoiding the problem of low rainfall is nearly possible through irrigation, but over rainfall at the end of crop cycle causes destructive damages of the output. Approach: This study uses descriptive statistics to analyze the fact and uses unit root test to measure the predictability of rainfall. The raw data is taken from 8 stations from 1980 to 2007. Results: Shifting crop cycle is also not fruitful due to un-predictive changes of rainfall. All combination of crop cycle is also affected in a similar way. Government subsidy in agricultural sector is remarkably increasing, but farmers are not able to cope properly with the environmental changes, especially for the cash crops and seasonal crops production. Conclusion: Under this circumstance, in the short run, adaptation approaches should be followed in farmer level and policy level. In the long run, technological advancement will play the most crucial role to solve the problem.

Highlights

Agriculture is primarily and heavily dependent on climate
Projection shows increase in northern high-latitude regions in winter, whereas reduces in subtropical latitudes (Giorgi and Francisco, 2000). It shows a positive trend in the daily intensity and a tendency toward higher frequencies of extreme rainfall in the last few decades (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1995)
This article analyzes the pattern of rainfall variation that causes changes in the crop cycle and its effectiveness with policies option for better coping abilities along with rainfall variation

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Agriculture is primarily and heavily dependent on climate. The climatic factors- rainfall, sunshine hours, temperature, relative humidity and length of the drought period- result in cycle-to-cycle variability of crops production. It is expected to result in long-term water and other resource shortages, degrading soil condition, disease and pest outbreaks on crops and livestock and so on Bonaccorso et al (2005) analyzed the trends of annual maximum rainfall series of Mediterranean areas and found different behavior pattern based on the different time scale, shorter duration series show increasing trends and longer duration series show decreasing trends. Projection shows increase in northern high-latitude regions in winter, whereas reduces in subtropical latitudes (Giorgi and Francisco, 2000) For some areas, it shows a positive trend in the daily intensity and a tendency toward higher frequencies of extreme rainfall in the last few decades (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1995). In respect to Malaysia, the simulated results indicate both increases and decreases in rainfall that causes serious concern for agricultural production. This article analyzes the pattern of rainfall variation that causes changes in the crop cycle and its effectiveness with policies option for better coping abilities along with rainfall variation

MATERIALS AND METHODS

RESULTS

DISCUSSION

CONCLUSION