Abstract
Agriculture in arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya is depends on seasonal characteristics of rainfall. This study seeks to distinguish components of regional climate variability, especially El Niño Southern Oscillation events and their impact on the growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Datasets used were: 1) rainfall (1961-2003) and 2) NDVI (1981-2003). Results indicate that climate variability is persistent in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya and continues to affect vegetation condition and consequently crop production. Correlation calculations between seasonal NDVI and rainfall shows that the October-December (OND) growing season is more reliable than March-May (MAM) season. Results show that observed biomass trends are not solely explained by rainfall variability but also changes in land cover and land use. Results show that El Niño and La Niña events in southeast Kenya vary in magnitude, both in time and space as is their impact on vegetation; and that variation in El Niño intensity is higher than during La Niña events. It is suggested that farmers should be encouraged to increase use of farm input in their agricultural enterprises during the OND season; particularly when above normal rains are forecast. The close relationship between rainfall and NDVI yield ground for improvement in the prediction of local level rainfall. Effective dissemination of this information to stakeholders will go along way to ameliorate the suffering of many households and enable government to plan ahead of a worse season. This would greatly reduce the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate related disasters by improving their management.
Highlights
Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) cover approximately 83% of the country’s total area [1]
The assumption we explore here is that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies are related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate teleconnections in affecting agricultural production [20]
The predictability of the short rains at a seasonal time scale is quite high [22] over the portion of Kenya that encompasses the study area. Rainfall in this region is strongly linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [10,12,24,25] raising the need to assess its impact at varying temporal and spatial scales
Summary
Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) cover approximately 83% of the country’s total area [1]. It would seem that these ASALs will continue to play a very important role in terms of human settlement as well as production of subsistence food crops for the ever increasing human population [4]. The major environmental factors limiting crop production in these ASALs of Kenya are high potential evaporation and rainfall, with the latter being highly variable and unpredictable in space and time [5]. The assumption we explore here is that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies are related to ENSO climate teleconnections in affecting agricultural production [20]. These teleconnections are manifested as short-term perturbations in local climate that in turn affect crop yields. An understanding of the historical patterns of dry and wet cycles in the region could provide some important insights into issues of management of food resources during ‘bumper’ years to minimize the effects of recurrent famine and food shortages during drought years
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