Abstract
Little scientific evidence exists in the context of climate variability and food crop production in Ndu. This study seeks to assess the impact of rainfall variability on food crop vulnerability in Ndu Sub-Division. The primary data were gotten through field surveys. A total of 200 farmers were sampled and questionnaires were administered to them. Descriptive and inferential statistical techniques were employed to analyze the data. Results were presented in tables and climographs. Formulated hypotheses were tested using the least square regression model to establish the extent of exposure and sensitivity of rainfall variability on food crop production. The Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient was used to describe the trends of variations in rainfall. Statistically, rainfall accounted for 19.5% of variability in maize production while 50.87% accounted for variability in beans production. Furthermore, 30.1% accounted for variations in potatoes production. From these statistics it was then concluded that rainfall variability minimally affects maize and beans but had a significant effect on maize production in Ndu. The research study also revealed that rainfall shows a decreasing trend. The study recommended, amongst others the need for farmers to adopt more sustainable agricultural practices and the increased use of more resistant crop species that can withstand exposure and sensitivity to rainfall variability. The study concluded that a bottom-up approach should be employed in order to improve on the adaptive capacities of the agricultural sector in Ndu.
Highlights
Climate remains a critical factor in determining the performance of natural and man-made systems
All these may lead to a century of increasing climate variability and change that are expected to be unprecedented in the history of human settlement and agrarian activities (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC, 1992)
This study revealed that 36% of variations in maize production in this state were accounted for by variations in rainfall
Summary
Climate remains a critical factor in determining the performance of natural and man-made systems. The combination of global warming will be superimposed on decadal climate variability, such as that caused by the Inter-decadal or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and inter-annual fluctuations caused by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. All these may lead to a century of increasing climate variability and change that are expected to be unprecedented in the history of human settlement and agrarian activities (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC, 1992). Vulnerability in the context of climate change is “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (IPCC, 2007). Despite the favourable climatic conditions and soils for agricultural production in Ndu Sub-Division, the sector is faced with variability in climatic parameters whose effects are expressed in delayed onset of rains, early onset of rains, and increase pest and disease proliferation on food crops
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