Rainfall variability and adverse birth outcomes in Amazonia

Abstract

Amazonian populations are increasingly exposed to climatic shocks, yet knowledge of related health impacts is limited. Understanding how health risks are coproduced by local climatic variability, place and social inequities is vital for improving decision-making, particularly in decentralized contexts. We assess the impacts of rainfall variability and multiscale vulnerabilities on birth weight, which has lifelong health consequences. We focus on highly river-dependent areas in Amazonia, using urban and rural birth registrations during 2006–2017. We find a strong but spatially differentiated relationship between local rainfall and subsequent river-level anomalies. Using Bayesian models, we disentangle the impacts of rainfall shocks of different magnitudes, municipal characteristics, social inequities and seasonality. Prenatal exposure to extremely intense rainfall is associated with preterm birth, restricted intra-uterine growth and lower mean birth weight (≤−183 g). Adverse birth outcomes also follow non-extreme intense rainfall (40% higher odds of low birth weight), drier conditions than seasonal averages (−39 g mean birth weight) and conception in the rising-water season (−13 g mean birth weight). Babies experience penalties totalling 646 g when born to adolescent, Amerindian, unmarried mothers that received no formal education or antenatal or obstetric health care. Rainfall variability confers intergenerational disadvantage, especially for socially marginalized Amazonians in forgotten places. Structural changes are required to reduce inequities, foster citizen empowerment and improve the social accountability of public institutions. Amazonians are subject to climate shocks, but the associated health outcomes are still unclear. This study finds that rainfall variability is associated with adverse birth outcomes, especially for those most isolated and marginalized.