Rainfall uncertainty in the Mediterranean: Intraseasonal rainfall distribution

Abstract

The rainfall distribution within the rainy season has crucial implications on a variety of disciplines. According to one approach of analyzing the intraseasonal rainfall distribution, it is essential to examine the date of different accumulated percentage (DAP hereafter), as presented in Paz and Kutiel (Isr J Earth Sci 52:47–63, 2003). The present study identifies various intraseasonal temporal distributions of rainfall, in 41 stations within the Mediterranean basin. Furthermore, classifications of these distributions according to their time, yield, and length are presented. The accumulated percentage was calculated for each Julian day for every available year in all stations. A correlation matrix between every possible pair of years, in each station, was calculated, and a cluster analysis (average linkage method) was performed. Finally, the averages of the entire dataset and the average of every cluster were compared in order to classify the clusters by using three parameters: timing represented by DAP(25%, 50%, 75%) annual rainfall total and the rainy season length (RSL). Between 2 and 5 different types of clusters, with various probabilities, were defined for every station. Out of 132 overall clusters, which were found in 41 stations, the most frequent type (cluster 1) was the median in all three parameters. There were 16 clusters identified as short in their RSL, and 18 were identified as having a long classification. There were 19 dry clusters, and only eight were identified as wet. As for the parameter of timing, 39 clusters were classified as early and 38 as late. One conclusion of this study was that the probability of a dry year is higher than a wet one, and likewise, the probability of a long year is higher than of a short one.