Rainfall Trends over the Past Century for Tropical Climatic Region in Western India

Abstract

Present study examines the applications of different trend detection methodologies for investigation of trend in long-term rainfall over Lower Tapi basin, India using daily gridded rainfall data for the period 1901 – 2013 at 0.25  0.25 resolution. The trends in rainfall indices, viz. total annual rainfall (TAR), annual maximum rainfall (AMR) and average annual rainfall intensity (AAI) have been detected using non-parametric and graphical methods. The results show increasing trends in TAR across all the 9 grids in the study region, with significant increasing trend over Grids-8 and 9. Further, AMR exhibited increasing trend over 7 out of 9 grids, with significant increasing trend over Grid-8 (ZMMK = 2.478;  = 0.356 mm/year) and Grid-9 (ZMMK = 2.278;  = 0.257 mm/year). The Innovative Trend Analysis plots reveal overall increasing trend in AMR across all the grids. The AAI exhibited significant increasing trend over 5 grids including Grids-8 and 9. The Grids 8 and 9 encompass the urban areas of the Surat city, located in the Lower Tapi basin. The urbanization in the Surat city and proximity to the Arabian Sea areas may be the possible reasons for significant increase in the extreme rainfall and rainfall intensity over Grids-8 and 9.