Rainfall Trends in the Southwestern Region of Syria Using Spatial and Statistical Analysis Methods

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the rainfall trends and the spatial-temporal variations in five stations during the period (1960-2019) in the southwestern region of Syria using MK & GIS. And to Predict rainfall amounts using IDW. The results showed decreasing trends in the monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall. The annual average showed a great variation with a standard deviation ranging between 51.1 – 131.7 mm from the average annual at the Damascus International Airport station, and 232.6 – 697.7 mm from the average annual (697.7 mm) in the Quneitra station. Quneitra showed a significant negative trend during the study period at a 5% significance level in the annual rainfall series. The upper limit for the significant changes on the monthly level was in the stations (Daraa, Quneitra, and Mezzeh), the stations (Daraa and Quneitra) showed the maximum decline in the general direction; This indicates a sharp change in the amount of monthly rainfall during the study period, which amounted to (8.03 mm in Daraa, and reached (18.7 mm/month) at the significance of 5% in the series of rainfall during March. The trends of rainfall changed from winter to spring and then autumn, and the results of the MK analysis showed the presence of low negative trends in the winter season, and high negative trends in the fall and spring seasons. The Quneitra station was the most changing compared to the stations and recorded the maximum negative decrease in the amount of rainfall, which amounted to 3.9 mm in May.