Abstract
Studies published over the last decade have reached contrasting conclusions regarding the impact of climate change on conflict among the Classic Maya (ca. 250-900 CE). Some researchers have argued that rainfall declines exacerbated conflict in this civilisation. However, other researchers have found that the relevant climate variable was increasing summer temperatures and not decreasing rainfall. The goal of the study reported here was to test between these two hypotheses. To do so, we collated annually-resolved conflict and climate data, and then subjected them to a recently developed Bayesian method for analysing count-based times-series. The results indicated that increasing summer temperature exacerbated conflict while annual rainfall variation had no effect. This finding not only has important implications for our understanding of conflict in the Maya region during the Classic Period. It also contributes to the ongoing discussion about the likely impact of contemporary climate change on conflict levels. Specifically, when our finding is placed alongside the results of other studies that have examined temperature and conflict over the long term, it is clear that the impact of climate change on conflict is context dependent.
Highlights
Concern is growing among policy-makers that anthropogenic climate change will lead to an increase in conflict [1,2,3]
The agreement between the epigraphic record and the archaeological data regarding the existence of an upward trend in conflict suggests that none of the biases that could potentially impact the epigraphic record is severe enough to undermine its use as a proxy for past conflict levels, especially given that our analysis is primarily concerned with long-term trends
The posterior density of the regression coefficient in Temperature indicates that there is a positive correlation between temperature and conflict—i.e., increased temperature is associated with increased conflict levels—and that the effect was substantial
Summary
Concern is growing among policy-makers that anthropogenic climate change will lead to an increase in conflict [1,2,3]. Some researchers have found that rising temperatures are associated with increased conflict [e.g., 4], while others have failed to find any effect of increasing temperatures on conflict levels [e.g., 5]. Still others have concluded that cooler rather than warmer temperatures lead to increased conflict [e.g., 6, 7]. The effect of rainfall on conflict is unclear.
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