Rainfall shocks, cognitive development and educational attainment among adolescents in a drought-prone region in Kenya

Laura Nübler,Karen Austrian,Jessie Pinchoff,John A Maluccio

doi:10.1017/s1355770x20000406

Abstract

AbstractThere is growing evidence that early life conditions are important for outcomes during adolescence, including cognitive development and education. Economic conditions at the time children enter school are also important. We examine these relationships for young adolescents living in a low-income drought-prone pastoral setting in Kenya using historical rainfall patterns captured by remote sensing as exogenous shocks. Past rainfall shocks measured as deviations from local long-term averages have substantial negative effects on the cognitive development and educational achievement of girls. Results for the effects of rainfall shocks on grades attained, available for both girls and boys, support that finding. Consideration of additional outcomes suggests the effects of rainfall shocks on education are due to multiple underlying mechanisms including persistent effects on the health of children and the wealth of their households, underscoring the potential value of contemporaneous program and policy responses to such shocks.

Highlights

Rainfall shocks pose substantial challenges to economic wellbeing in settings where the dominant livelihoods are based on agriculture and livestock (Paxson, 1992; Miguel et al, 2004)
Local rainfall shocks in the first years of life negatively and significantly affected all educational outcomes examined in the Adolescent Girls Initiative-Kenya (AGI-K) survey sample
Using two samples from pastoralist Wajir County, Kenya, combined with historical rainfall data, we examined the effect of local rainfall shocks indicative of meteorological drought at different stages of childhood on educational outcomes in early adolescence

Summary

Introduction

Rainfall shocks pose substantial challenges to economic wellbeing in settings where the dominant livelihoods are based on agriculture and livestock (Paxson, 1992; Miguel et al, 2004). Throughout the African continent, expected changes to precipitation patterns resulting from climate change will likely alter agricultural production, increasing the frequency of shocks in many areas (IPCC, 2014). A challenge for areas relying on rain-fed agriculture, changing rainfall patterns threaten areas where livestock-based pastoral livelihoods dominate. Low rainfall and drought lead to a decline in water availability These factors make improved understanding of the persistent effects of rainfall shocks and underlying mechanisms a priority

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion