Abstract
Evidence on the impact of weather shocks on child nutrition focuses on linear growth retardation (stunting) and thus, associates the effect of a short-term measure (weather events) on a cumulative measure (attained height). Relatively little is known on how weather shocks predict increases in wasting in a population. This study explores whether deviation in rainfall in Ethiopia, a drought prone country, is a sensitive indicator of future increases in wasting. Around 12% of children 0–23 months were wasted, but we found no consistent association between the rainfall shock variables and child weight-for-height Z-scores. The results indicate that monitoring rainfall does not provide a practical early warning to use for scaling up financing and management of preventative measures without additional information to increase precision.
Highlights
An estimated 52 million children worldwide suffer from acute malnutrition which dramatically increases their risk of death: compared to well-nourished children, children with a weight-forheight Z-score (WHZ) 2–3 s.d. below the median die at a rate three times higher than those with a WHZ of − 1 or higher.[1]
With a few exceptions,[5] the evidence on the impact of weather shocks on child nutrition focuses on linear growth retardation and uses a short term, acute weather event to explain a cumulative measure of nutrition
This reflects a misunderstanding of a biological pathway for height determination, and may lead to incorrect interpretation of the impacts of weather shocks on child nutritional status.[6]
Summary
An estimated 52 million children worldwide suffer from acute malnutrition which dramatically increases their risk of death: compared to well-nourished children, children with a weight-forheight Z-score (WHZ) 2–3 s.d. below the median die at a rate three times higher than those with a WHZ of − 1 or higher.[1]. It is relatively difficult to assess acute malnutrition on a population scale since it is more time sensitive than either stunting or underweight and harder to track in periodic household surveys.[3] Indicators of undernutrition are elevated in times of climatic shocks,[4] a concern both for tracking of nutritional status and for designing appropriate programs. With a few exceptions,[5] the evidence on the impact of weather shocks on child nutrition focuses on linear growth retardation (stunting) and uses a short term, acute weather event to explain a cumulative measure of nutrition.
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