Rainfall prediction optimization model in ten-day time step based on sliding window mechanism and zero sum game

Abstract

Abstract Rainfall is a precious water resource, especially for Shenzhen with scarce local water resources. Therefore, an effective rainfall prediction model is essential for improvement of water supply efficiency and water resources planning in Shenzhen. In this study, a deep learning model based on zero sum game (ZSG) was proposed to predict ten-day rainfall, the regular models were constructed for comparison, and the cross-validation was performed to further compare the generalization ability of the models. Meanwhile, the sliding window mechanism, differential evolution genetic algorithm, and discrete wavelet transform were developed to solve the problem of data non-stationarity, local optimal solutions, and noise filtration, respectively. The k-means clustering algorithm was used to discover the potential laws of the dataset to provide reference for sliding window. Mean square error (MSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were applied for model evaluation. The results indicated that ZSG could better optimize the parameter adjustment process of models, and improved generalization ability of models. The generalization ability of the bidirectional model was superior to that of the unidirectional model. The ZSG-based models showed stronger superiority compared with regular models, and provided the lowest MSE (1.29%), NSE (21.75%), and MAE (7.5%) in the ten-day rainfall prediction.