Abstract
AbstractAccurate and timely precipitation forecasts are crucial for early warning. Rainfall nowcasting, the process of statistically extrapolating recent rainfall observations, is increasingly used for short‐term forecasting. Nowcasts are generally constructed with high‐resolution radar observations. As a proof of concept, we construct nowcasts with country‐wide rainfall maps estimated from signal level data of commercial microwave links (CMLs) for 12 summer days in the Netherlands. CML nowcasts compare well to radar rainfall nowcasts. Provided well‐calibrated CML rainfall estimates are employed, CML nowcasts can outperform unadjusted real‐time radar nowcasts for high rainfall rates, which are underestimated as compared to a reference. Care should be taken with the sensitivity of the advection field derivation to areas with low CML coverage and the inherent measurement scale of CML data, which can be larger than the application scale. We see potential for rainfall nowcasting with CML data, for example, in regions where weather radars are absent.
Highlights
Accurate and timely precipitation forecasts are crucial for flood early warning, water management, and agriculture (Ingram et al, 2002; Pappenberger et al, 2015; Thorndahl et al, 2017)
The results demonstrate that there is potential for using rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links (CMLs) data to nowcast rainfall up to a few hours ahead, for example, in regions where high-resolution rainfall observations or weather radars are absent
We initially focus on the squall line passing from southwest to northeast on 10 September 2011 (Figure 1a, Movie S1 and S2), which, because of the convective character and high rainfall sum, is more exemplary of events for other climates than the Dutch temperate maritime climate
Summary
Accurate and timely precipitation forecasts are crucial for flood early warning, water management, and agriculture (Ingram et al, 2002; Pappenberger et al, 2015; Thorndahl et al, 2017). For forecast horizons of 3 hr or less, rainfall nowcasts, the (statistical) process of extrapolating real-time remotely sensed quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs), are increasingly used (e.g., Ebert et al, 2004; Foresti et al, 2016; Liguori & Rico-Ramirez, 2012; Pierce et al, 2012; Wilson et al, 2010). A promising option is signal level data from the roughly four million commercial microwave links (CMLs) worldwide (Ericsson, 2016) These are near-ground radio connections used in cellular telecommunication networks. As these links operate at frequencies where raindrops significantly absorb and scatter radio waves (Atlas & Ulbrich, 1977; Hogg, 1968; Olsen et al, 1978), rainfall attenuates the signals between the transmitting and receiving CML antennas. This is a nuisance from the telecommunication perspective, IMHOFF ET AL
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