Abstract
Forecasting atmospheric parameters, especially rainfall, has become a national requirement. The main objective of this research is to find a model and obtain the results of rainfall forecasting for the next two periods, especially in the city of Medan. The method used in this research is the Box Jenkins method with the ARIMA Seasonal model approach and the Decomposition method. Both of these methods are suitable for data situations which are seasonal in nature. The results of forecasting these two methods are compared based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. From the results obtained, it is known that the Seasonal method ARIMA (2,0,2) (1,0,1) 12 is better at predicting rainfall in Medan City when compared to the Decomposition method seen from the MAPE of each method, namely 18.051% for the method. Seasonal ARIMA and 26.559% for the Decomposition method.
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