Rainfall events and climate change in Mediterranean environments: an alarming shift from resource to risk in Eastern Spain

Abstract

Consequences of climate change in Mediterranean environments are difficult to predict, partly because daily data do not fit with the timescale of Mediterranean processes, and higher resolutions are needed. This work presents an analysis of 698 rainfall episodes in a wide area of the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Jucar Water Authority basin), between 1989 and 2016. From the original data, collected every 5 min, episodes were selected and characterized by indicators of accumulated precipitation, maximum intensity, reduced average intensity, and persistence. They were then classified, according to their predominance as resource or risk, into three types: (1) limited resource free of risk; (2) high resource, not free of risk; and (3) high risk and low resource. The results were mapped and compared with real events. The temporal evolution of episodes showed a general trend to decrease the resource and increase the risk, which was more pronounced inland than on the coast. Another alarming trend is the monthly shift in different episode types, which can lead to dangerous coincidence of episodes very productive and very intense.