Abstract
Abstract. A coupled empirical approach to highlight relationships between rainfall, vegetation segmentation, and landslide occurrence is discussed. To reveal such links, two important rainfall events, which occurred over the Esino river basin in central Italy in November 2013 and May 2014, were analysed. The correlation between rainfall and landslides was evaluated by applying an intensity–duration (ID) threshold method, whereas the correlation between vegetation segmentation and landslides was investigated using morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA). This coupled approach represents an attempt to find both timing and location of landslide occurrence through an empirical (black box) analysis. Results showed: (i) the ID minimum threshold proposed in a previous study (Gioia et al., 2015) to be verified as an effective equation to assess the rainfall conditions likely to trigger landslides in the study area ("when"), and (ii) the core areas and the fragmented vegetation structures defined by the MSPA to be the most affected by slope failures ("where"). These encouraging findings prompt additional testing and the application of such a coupled empirical approach so that it is possible to achieve an integrated basis for landslide forecasting.
Highlights
Landslides are common phenomena in Italy and in the Marche region
According to a 2008 report on hydrogeological hazards by the Italian Ministry of Environment, about 99 % of the municipalities in this region are prone to mass movements, and 91 % of these towns have been affected by landslides (Ministry of Environment Territory and Sea, 2008)
Two recent rainfall events that triggered widespread landslides over the Esino river watershed, central Italy, were studied by applying the intensity– duration rainfall statistical model (Caine, 1980) and morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) integrated with a geographic information system (GIS) (Soille and Vogt, 2009; Vogt, 2014); the former method was used to define a rainfall threshold, the latter to detect the vegetation segmentation patterns more subjected to slope failures
Summary
Landslides are common phenomena in Italy and in the Marche region. According to a 2008 report on hydrogeological hazards by the Italian Ministry of Environment, about 99 % of the municipalities in this region are prone to mass movements, and 91 % of these towns have been affected by landslides (Ministry of Environment Territory and Sea, 2008).Undeniably, each landslide occurrence responds to generally known triggering factors and specific predisposing local conditions. According to a 2008 report on hydrogeological hazards by the Italian Ministry of Environment, about 99 % of the municipalities in this region are prone to mass movements, and 91 % of these towns have been affected by landslides (Ministry of Environment Territory and Sea, 2008). Cruden and Varnes, 1996; Strudley et al, 2008; Fell et al, 2008; Wasowski et al, 2010). Land use change is recognized as an important factor influencing mass movements To this extent an interesting aspect, though little explored, is the characterization of the vegetation cover in rainfall-triggered landslide areas, using segmentation methods based on digital images
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