Abstract
Railways transformed inland transport during the nineteenth century. In this paper, we study how railways led to local population change and divergence in England and Wales as it underwent dramatic urbanization. We make use of detailed data on railway stations, population, and occupational structure in more than 9000 spatial units. A network of least cost paths based on major towns and the length of the 1851 rail network is also created to address endogeneity. Our instrumental variable estimates show that having a railway station in a locality by 1851 led to significantly higher population growth from 1851 to 1891 and shifted the male occupational structure out of agriculture. Moreover, we estimate that having stations increased population growth more if localities had greater initial population density and for those 3–15 km from stations, they had less growth compared to localities more distant from stations. Overall, we find that railways reinforced the population hierarchy of the early nineteenth century and contributed to further spatial divergence. Their implications for the geographic distribution of population were large.
Highlights
Britain’s urbanization was exceptional during the nineteenth century
Getting stations in 1851 was associated with units having ‘worse’ 1851 to 1891 growth prospects after accounting for other factors. We find this first explanation less believable given railways were built by private companies with profit maximization motives
We study how railways led to population change and divergence in an economy whose urbanization rate increased dramatically from 1800 to 1900
Summary
Britain’s urbanization was exceptional during the nineteenth century. Between 1800 and 1900 the percentage of its population living in cities of 5000 or more increased from 19 to 67. In this paper we study how railways contributed to population change and spatial divergence in a key part of the British economy, England and Wales. The empirical analysis estimates how being near a railway station in the mid-nineteenth century affected local population growth and changes in occupational structure over the following decades. Our baseline specification studies population change from 1851 to 1891 and uses an indicator for having a station within a unit’s boundary by 1851 as the main railway variable. The preferred estimates imply that having an 1851 station caused unit population to grow by an additional 0.87% per year from 1851 to 1891 This effect is large, implying railways had a major impact on the population distribution in England and Wales.
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