Radiotherapy was associated with the lower incidence of metachronous second primary lung cancer

Abstract

Our study aims to estimate the incidence of metachronous second primary lung cancer(SPLC) in initial primary lung cancer(IPLC) survivors and to determine whether radiotherapy affects the risk of metachronous SPLC in the first five years after the diagnosis of lung cancer. Incidence data of IPLC individuals who survived ≥2 years were obtained from SEER-18 database in 2004–2007. Joinpoint regression analysis and competing risk analysis were used to calculate the incidence of metachronous SPLC. Propensity score matching and decision analysis were available to estimate the effect of radiotherapy on metachronous SPLC. 264 of 11657 IPLC survivors with radiotherapy and 1090 of 24499 IPLC survivors without radiotherapy developed metachronous SPLC during 5-year follow-up, respectively. In joinpoint regression analysis, the 5-year incidence of metachronous SPLC in the radiotherapy group was lower than that in the nonradiotherapy group(2385 per 100,000 vs 4748 per 100,000, HR = 0.43,95% CI:0.39–0.47). Competing risk analysis showed that the survivors with radiotherapy were associated with the lower 5 year incidence of metachronous SPLC compared with those without radiotherapy(2.28% vs 4.47%, HR = 0.49,95% CI:0.43–0.57). Through propensity score matching, 4077 pairs of survivors were available to further study that radiotherapy potentially decreased the risk of developing metachronous SPLC with the adjustment of various factors(2.5% vs 3.3%, HR = 0.72, 95% CI:0.55–0.96). Decision analysis suggested that radiotherapy was a negative independent risk factor of metachronous SPLC with clinical net benefit in a range of risk thresholds (2% to 5%). Survivors of IPLC with radiotherapy likely had a low risk of metachronous SPLC during the first five years follow-up, especially non-small cell lung cancer.