Radiological impact assessment of a dirty bomb using Hotspot Code and AI: Insights from spent nuclear fuel isotopes

Abstract

This study evaluates the potential radiological effects resulting from the use of a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD), commonly known as a “dirty bomb,” in Dhamar City, Yemen, focusing on its impact on human health. Seasonal atmospheric variations were analyzed using the HotSpot Health Physics Code to model the Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) distribution following an explosion. The TEDE’s effect on different human organs was assessed, considering both external and internal radiation exposures. The study demonstrated that winter nights posed the highest radiation risk, with dose distribution areas of 0.018 km2, 0.14 km2, and 3.3 km2 for inner, middle, and outer zones, respectively, surpassing other seasonal and daily values. Conversely, summer recorded the lowest radiation spread. A detailed temporal analysis during winter nights showed an initial TEDE of 9.5 Sv at 0.1 min post-explosion, which decreased exponentially to 1.3 Sv after 2000 min (33.3 h) and further to 0.0038 Sv after 6500 min (108.3 h) with the aid of AI-enhanced “Long Short Term Memory Networks (LSTM)”. The highest radiation doses to human organs within a 100 m2 area during the initial 10 min post-detonation were significantly above permissible limits, with critical organs like the surface bone, liver, and red marrow receiving doses of 68 Sv, 12 Sv, and 5.5 Sv, respectively. These findings underline the need for robust emergency response strategies and long-term health monitoring to mitigate the adverse health impacts of RDDs. The comprehensive assessment presented in this study, enhanced by artificial intelligence, provides essential data for improving public health safety and emergency preparedness in regions susceptible to radiological threats.