Radicalization ecosystem as a confounder of violent extremism’s drivers

Abstract

ABSTRACT Violent extremism is a destabilizing force; its underlying confounding influence should be accounted for to understand this phenomenon. Previous studies have identified its potential risk factors or drivers. This study of Sharia-invoking Salafi extremism addresses whether these factors or drivers are affected by the confounding influence of the radicalization ecosystem. Starting secularly, the newly-formed Eastern European nation of Kosovo became radicalized. Using the 2013 data obtained from Pew Research Center, this study computes measures of confounding influence by using public support levels for radical Islamist agendas before and after radicalization in Kosovo. Utilizing these data and those relating to the worldwide number of jihadist fighters in different periods, this study asserts that the ecosystem acts as a confounder of the risk factors and drivers of violent extremism, thus creating spurious correlations between the two. This study invokes a published theoretical framework for understanding the radicalization ecosystem behind the confounding vis-à-vis Salafi extremism. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the present study finds that mitigating the influence of the ecosystem offers the most comprehensive way of reducing violent extremism. Such a conclusion has implications for the direction of terrorism research.