Abstract
AbstractOn top of a declining trend driven by global warming, the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) exhibits considerable interannual variations. In this study, we analyze the interannual anomalies of September SIE in relation to the surface radiation anomalies. We find that the accumulation of radiation energy in the early months (June, July, and August) very well explains the September SIE variability (R2 = 0.81). In Particular, strong correlations are found between September SIE and June radiation anomalies, which in the shortwave is due to cloud and surface albedo changes and in the longwave due to atmospheric warming. The results show that monitoring the radiation anomalies affords a potential means to improve the prediction of the late summer sea ice.
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