Racial-Ethnic Diversity and the Decline of Predominantly-White Mainline and Evangelical Protestant Denominations: A Spatial Fixed-Effects Approach

Abstract

Predominantly white Mainline and Evangelical Protestant denominations are in a state of stagnation or decline in the United States. This is partially because these denominations fail to thrive in the ever-growing racial-ethnic diversity of the U.S. In fact, despite increases in the non-white population, diversity within these Protestant groups remains low. The organizational ecology approach asserts that the mismatch between the potential pool of adherents and the demographic niche occupied by the white Protestant groups encourages decline in areas that are diversifying. Past research supporting this theory, however, have relied on limited samples/timeframes and neglected the spatial autocorrelation of religious adherent rates and its predictors. This study re-examines the linkage between racial-ethnic minority growth and white denominations’ adherent decline using a fixed-effects spatial Durbin model to predict the adherent rates of Mainline and Evangelical Protestants in U.S. counties from 1980 to 2010. Results from the non-spatial fixed effects model fail to identify a significant association for Mainline denominations, but adjusting for spatial dependency reveals a direct effect for Mainline denominations and a spatial spillover effect for Evangelicals. Future studies on religious change and diversity must take their spatial structure into account.