Abstract
An article by Larry Isaac and William Kelly purports to test alternative theories of the development of welfare policy in the United States. This research note discusses serious shortcomings of measurement, model specification, and interpretation in Isaac and Kelly's work. Such errors call into question many of their conclusions. Partial reanalysis of the data suggests that both civil turmoil and standard developmental variables shaped public assistance outputs in the United States from 1947 to 1976. The theoretical significance of these findings and some of Isaac and Kelly's original findings is briefly assessed.
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