Racial Disparity in U.S. Imprisonment Across States and Over Time

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We analyze the contribution of changes in the black–white racial disparity in imprisonment to changes in the black incarceration rate. We also describe the behavior of the racial disparity across states and across time. We use state level incarceration data for non-Hispanic black and white males to perform a decomposition of the black incarceration rate. This allows us to attribute changes in black incarceration to changes in the racial disparity and changes in the overall incarceration rate. We use a Fourier approximation to identify structural change points for the racial disparity at both the state and national level. The large increase in black imprisonment between 1978 and 1999 was driven by increases in the overall rate of imprisonment, while the smaller decrease which occurred between 1999 and 2014 was driven by reductions in the black–white racial disparity. For many states, the racial disparity increased starting in the mid-1980s, where this increase may have been linked to the crack epidemic. Many states experienced a downturn in the racial disparity starting in the 1990s. Whatever its other effects, this suggests that the 1994 crime bill did not aggravate the preexisting racial disparity in imprisonment. California’s experience has been strongly counter to national trends with a large increase in the racial disparity beginning in the early 1990s and continuing until near the end of our sample. While the racial disparity in imprisonment has been falling since 1996, it remains quite high as of 2014. Future work is required to better understand the policy determinants of this disparity.