Racial concentration and dynamics of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States

Abstract

This article considers how county-level concentrations of Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites are associated with COVID-19 vaccination differently. I argue that racially specific mechanisms-differential concentrations of social vulnerability and political ideology by race-are likely to create diverse associations between racial concentration and COVID-19 vaccination not only across racial groups but also within racial groups over time from early rollout to the time after COVID-19 vaccines became widely available. I test this argument by drawing on data from multiple sources that include county-level information on COVID-19 vaccination rates, racial population make-ups, and measures of political ideology and community vulnerability. Results show that the association between racial concentration and COVID-19 vaccination changes substantially across and within racial groups over time. Counties with higher percent of Asians and percent of Whites have higher vaccination rates at earlier time intervals whereas counties with higher percent of Latinos and percent of Blacks show lower vaccination rates. This trend flips at later dates for percent of Blacks, percent of Latinos, and percent of Whites. Results from multilevel regression models and mediation analysis controlling for vaccine hesitancy show that social vulnerability and political ideology are the underlying factors and their differential associations with diverse racial concentrations help create the racially specific and time-varying patterns.