Race, Ethnicity, and Pediatric Postsurgical Mortality: Current Trends and Future Projections.

Abstract

No study has contextualized the aggregate human costs attributable to disparities in pediatric postsurgical mortalities in the United States, a critical step needed to convey the scale of racial inequalities to clinicians, policymakers, and the public. We conducted a population-based study of 673 677 children from US hospitals undergoing intermediate to high-risk surgery between 2000 and 2019. We estimated the excess deaths that could be avoided if Black and Hispanic children had comparable mortality rates to white children. We estimated the mortality reduction required to eliminate disparities within the next decade. We finally evaluated the impact of policy changes targeting a modest annual 2.5% reduction in disparity-attributable mortality. During 2000 to 2019, risk-adjusted postoperative mortality trended consistently higher for both Black (adjusted RR [aRR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.36-1.49) and Hispanic children (aRR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.17-1.27) than for white children. These disparity gaps were driven by higher mortality in Black and Hispanic children receiving surgery in nonteaching hospitals (Black versus white aRR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.38-1.93; Hispanic versus white aRR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.33-1.70). There were 4700 excess deaths among Black children and 5500 among Hispanic children, representing. 10 200 (average: 536 per year) excess deaths among minoritized children. Policy changes achieving an annual 2.5% reduction in postoperative mortality would prevent approximately 1100 deaths among Black children in the next decade. By exploring the solution, and not just the problem, our study provides a framework to reduce disparities in pediatric postoperative mortality over the next decade.