Race, Crime and Science

Abstract

prestigious universities invoked the term "super-predators" in their prediction, based largely on their interpretation of census data, that within 15 years, society would be dealing with an estimated 27,000 more violent juvenile "predators." One professor argued that, unless society acted "today", we were "going to have a bloodbath when these kids grow up" . The prediction led States to pass legislation to toughen penalties and to support treating juveniles as adults in the courts and in sentencing. By 2000, however, juvenile homicide rates had fallen below rates from 15 years before the predictions. Proponents of the perspective reversed themselves and the term "super-predator" became widely recognized as an inaccurate and racially charged idea. Despite these problems, efforts to improve the science of identifying, as well as predicting, high rate and dangerous offenders, have continued to grow. They have also incorporated increasingly sophisticated data analysis. The analysis of...