Race, Class, and Place Modify Mortality Rates for the Leading Causes of Death in the United States, 1999-2021.

Abstract

Race and ethnicity, socioeconomic class, and geographic location are well-known social determinants of health in the US. Studies of population mortality often consider two, but not all three of these risk factors. To disarticulate the associations of race (whiteness), class (socioeconomic status), and place (county) with risk of cause-specific death in the US. We conducted a retrospective analysis of death certificate data. Bayesian regression models, adjusted for age and race/ethnicity from the American Community Survey and the county Area Deprivation Index, were used for inference. County-level mortality for 11 leading causes of death (1999-2019) and COVID-19 (2020-2021). County "whiteness" and socioeconomic status modified death rates; geospatial effects differed by cause of death. Other factors equal, a 20% increase in county whiteness was associated with 5-8% increase in death from three causes and 4-15% reduction in death from others, including COVID-19. Other factors equal, advantaged counties had significantly lower death rates, even when juxtaposed with disadvantaged ones. Patterns of residual risk, measured by spatial county effects, varied by cause of death; for example: cancer and heart disease death rates were better explained by age, socioeconomic status, and county whiteness than were COVID-19 and suicide deaths. There are important independent contributions from race, class, and geography to risk of death in the US.