Rabies transmission in the Arctic: An agent-based model reveals the effects of broad-scale movement strategies on contact risk between Arctic foxes

Abstract

Arctic rabies is an ongoing threat to human populations and domestic animals inpolar regions, where Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) are the main reservoir hosts. Human-driven changes in resource availability are shifting the distribution of Arctic foxes and these changes may affect the risk of rabies transmission and spread. Our understanding of the effects of broad-scale movement strategies in Arctic foxes and spatial distribution of resources on contact patterns among Arctic foxes, and their consequences on the dynamics of rabies epidemiology remains limited, in part, due to the difficulty of obtaining contact data from such remote and expansive regions. In this perspective, we built a spatially explicit agent-based model coupled with hidden Markov models to explore how Arctic fox movement behavior, combined with Arctic fox population density, resource availability and rabies transmission dynamics, affects the risk of infectious contact between Arctic foxes across heterogeneous landscapes. The model was parameterized using a combination of unique field data collected in the Canadian High Arctic and published studies from other Arctic regions. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effects of multiple model input parameters on contact rates among Arctic foxes. Our results showed that cumulative contact rates per fox were driven by predictors related to rabies transmission dynamics and fox carrying capacity, while unique contact rates per fox and unique infectious contact rates per rabid fox were best predicted by parameters associated with rabies transmission dynamics, fox movement behavior, and fox carrying capacity. Ultimately, our study provides new insights into the ecological drivers of rabies transmission and may inspire further research on modelling cost-effective rabies prevention strategies in the Arctic.