Abstract
Canine rabies was endemic pre-urbanisation, yet little is known about how it persists in small populations of dogs typically seen in rural and remote regions. By simulating rabies outbreaks in such populations (50–90 dogs) using a network-based model, our objective was to determine if rabies-induced behavioural changes influence disease persistence. Behavioural changes–increased bite frequency and increased number or duration of contacts (disease-induced roaming or paralysis, respectively)–were found to be essential for disease propagation. Spread occurred in approximately 50% of model simulations and in these, very low case rates (2.0–2.6 cases/month) over long durations (95% range 20–473 days) were observed. Consequently, disease detection is a challenge, risking human infection and spread to other communities via dog movements. Even with 70% pre-emptive vaccination, spread occurred in >30% of model simulations (in these, median case rate was 1.5/month with 95% range of 15–275 days duration). We conclude that the social disruption caused by rabies-induced behavioural change is the key to explaining how rabies persists in small populations of dogs. Results suggest that vaccination of substantially greater than the recommended 70% of dog populations is required to prevent rabies emergence in currently free rural areas.
Highlights
Canine rabies is an ancient disease that has persisted in dog populations for millennia–well before urbanisation [1]
We investigated rabies spread in populations of 50–90 dogs using a simulation model in which dogs’ contacts were based on the social networks of three populations of free-roaming domestic dogs in the Torres Strait, Australia
Rabies spread would not occur unless we included rabies-induced behavioural changes
Summary
Canine rabies is an ancient disease that has persisted in dog populations for millennia–well before urbanisation [1]. Increased understanding of rabies spread in communities with relatively small populations of dogs–such as those in rural and remote areas–could give insights about rabies persistence in non-urban areas, as well as inform prevention and control strategies in such regions. We hypothesise that rabiesinduced behavioural changes promote rabies transmission in dog populations by influencing social network structure to increase the probability of effective contact. If so, this would enable rabies to spread in rural and remote regions
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