Quo Vadis NATO?

Abstract

NATO held its third summit this year. That in itself is remarkable, but the real sensation isthat this summit produced, no exaggeration, historic results. It was about time. The Alliancehas wasted a number of years, largely because of the complexity and rapidity of the situation,but also due to indecision, internal divisions and let us say it openly, cowardice.The international security situation, including the European security situation, has changedradically since the last strategic concept was adopted in 2010. Both in political-security terms andin military-technical terms. And NATO has been hesitant to respond.By way of indication, Russia’s departure from the path of cooperation in 2007 wasobvious and open. Even before then, it was not sincere in its efforts to democratise andintegrate into the European security system, but after 2007 it was clear that it had theopposite ambitions: see Putin’s Munich Speech, the attack on Georgia and the annexation ofpart of its territory, its heavy-handed intervention in the Syrian war, its support for NorthKorea and, of course, its de facto occupation of Crimea and two provinces of Eastern Ukraine.Nor has NATO adequately responded to the new challenge posed by China. We could goon incessantly about the inadequate response to Iran’s nuclear weaponization and others.But this is also true in the military-technological field, where cyber warfare, drones, hybridwarfare, artificial intelligence and others have emerged, again only indicatively.However, the unprecedented Russian aggression against Ukraine has had an impact. TheAlliance got not only the opportunity, but the very urgent need to take stock of where itstands. The world has radically changed in the past decade and the change was multiplied bythe Russian aggression against Ukraine and the war that is still going on with little hope ofending any time soon, as we speak.NATO has “woken up” from its “brain dead” state and has responded to these challengeswith surprising strength. This reaction is clearly visible in the Communiqué adopted at theSummit and in the new Strategic Concept.