Quiet Transformation: The Role of the Office of Net Assessment

Abstract

Abstract : Has the work of the Office of Net Assessment (ONA), and that of its only Director, Andrew Marshall, significantly influenced U.S. defense and national security policy? Are their assessments responsible for derailing cherished Service programs such as the Crusader? Judging by the press coverage of the development of the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) in the spring and summer of 2001, this debate exercised just about everyone in the Defense establishment. Given the facts on the ground, it was a peculiar debate - one of form over the substance of the transformation, as it seemed more important to keep Andrew Marshall's name off the final product than his thoughts out of it. In fact, DoD and the services have been and are pursuing research, training, and systems ad infinitum consistent with ONA's own work and their sponsored studies. Ample documentation of the latter is available from the same period, and most of it never figured in the debate over the strategic review. Furthermore, although neither the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) nor the National Security Strategy appear to have Marshall's imprimatur, they both enshrine a principle central to the ONA studies available for review: a capabilities-based force is a more powerful tool than a threat-based force. Based on an examination of how recent research and program implementation correspond with ONA's studies, the answer to the questions above is yes. This paper looks at three of the many areas addressed by ONA over the last few years to illustrate the point that the services are moving towards acquiring highly flexible capabilities: military use of space, biotechnology and bioscience that are consistent with the transformation playing out in DoD.