Quick large-scale spatiotemporal flood inundation computation using integrated Encoder-Decoder LSTM with time distributed spatial output models

Abstract

Accurate spatiotemporal flood simulations are essential for making informed decisions regarding flood release in affected regions, such as flood detention areas. Traditional spatiotemporal flood simulation approach uses partial differential equation (PDE) models (or physics-based models), which need high computational time. Although many machine learning (ML) models for inundation are increasingly being used to emulate the PDE models to address this issue, utilizing conventional ML models to achieve large-scale spatiotemporal flood prediction (i.e., simulation output in tens of thousands of grids and time steps over the whole flood event) remains a significant challenge. Therefore, we developed a new inundation model (IM) using encoder-decoder long short-term memory (ED-LSTM) with Time Distributed Spatial output model (ED-LSTM-TDS) that can acquire accurate spatially distributed flood information more rapidly. In the new IM framework, each ED-LSTM-TDS is built to simultaneously generate output for multiple (K) cell grids and multiple ED-LSTM-TDS models are built for prediction at all grids of entire PDE model. This study is the first of its kind to employ the ED-LSTM-TDS method to address spatiotemporal flood inundation simulation problems for flood detention areas. A 1994 km2 flood detention area in northeastern China was used as a case study. ED-LSTM-TDS exhibited better performance in predicting flood characteristics (e.g., water depth, velocity) than alternative methods, including ordinary LSTM, artificial neural network (ANN), and multiple linear regression (MLR). In addition, we investigated the trade-off relationship between the accuracy of flood characteristic prediction and the computation time of the proposed model by considering different numbers of K cell grids in each ED-LSTM-TDS model. The final proposed inundation model could accurately predict the spatiotemporal flood characteristics within 1.5 min to acquire the same information that required approximately 1 h by the PDE models. Such rapid and accurate prediction by the proposed model is important for evacuation planning, upstream flood control decisions and flood damage reduction.