Questioning the water wars rationale: a case study of the Indus Waters Treaty

Abstract

The water wars rationale predicts that countries will wage war to safeguard their access to water resources, especially if there is water scarcity, competitive use and the countries are enemies due to a wider conflict. Following this argument, India and Pakistan should have fought a war over the Indus basin instead of negotiating the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. In explaining this Indo–Pakistan cooperation which is specifically over water, the critical feature that emerges is that through cooperation the countries were able to safeguard their long–term water supply. In other words, cooperation is water rational. Using the Indus basin experience, the underlying logic of the water wars rationale is questioned, in particular, the use of public statements by key decisionmakers as evidence of future water wars and is shown to be wanting.