Questioning a Green New Deal–Bulk materials requirements for an all-renewable economy in the United States

Abstract

The growing fear of global catastrophe wrought by climate change has led many to believe that a rapid shift from fossil energy to renewable sources must be engaged immediately to reduce production of greenhouse gases. Numerous studies have been published offering suggestions for meeting all US energy demands by renewables power sources, with some projecting over 4500 GW of renewable energy. This study focuses on the materials questions of renewables – land, steel, and concrete. The Biden Administration has proposed a Green New Deal (GND), which would meet all US energy demands with renewable energy and storage by 2050. Projected demands by Jacobson in his 2019 study are used to simulate this goal, and these values are then compared to a reference projection by the US Energy Information Administration.Material requirements for land, steel, and concrete are estimated using data extracted from the available literature. This study finds that GND would require about a quarter of the continental US for deployment of wind and solar facilities by the year 2050. Fabrication and construction of these facilities would require a staggering 40 percent of annual US steel production each year to produce sufficient new wind and solar facilities to meet 2050 projections. To meet the GND 2050 goals would require construction of 77 GW per year of new wind power between 2020 and 2050, and 70 GW per year of new solar facilities. Roof top solar, a popular do-it-yourself installation, would require the addition of about 700,000 homes per year to meet GND goals.GND is ambitious and far-reaching. This study concludes that future energy plans that limit US options only to renewable sources without first balancing the need for raw materials and the associated environmental tradeoffs would be negligent.