Quest for the Middle Kingdom: the Political Effects of China’s Ambitions in the Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s brand for economic infrastructure development and investment. The BRI offers significant strategic advantages to the PRC and many benefits to partner countries, and is intended to situate China at the centre of international trade. At the same time, unintended consequences of investment will impact local populations in key areas, including population displacement, environmental degradation, corruption, political upheaval, exploitation and violent conflict. While the BRI offers significant opportunities to both China and its partner countries in the initiative, relative Chinese military weakness, the limits of economic activity, underdeveloped soft power authority, energy dependency, terrorism and domestic politics will all either inhibit the BRI or remain vulnerable aspects of the Chinese national interest as projects move forward. The BRI has the potential to reshape the economic relations of the world, however the strategic limitations of the project do not indicate a short or mid-term upheaval of the international system in favor of China or an end to China’s political challenges at home and abroad. This essay views the realist and constructivist schools of international relations theory as the most useful way to understand the motivations and consequences of the BRI. The long term effects on the global balance of power will also be examined, especially in the context of Xi’s vision for China in 2050.