Quel parti va Gagner les Elections? Avantages et Faiblesses d'une question numerique [1

Abstract

Whlch Party Will Win? Advantages and Weaknesses of a Numerical Question. This article evaluates the numerical question used in the 1997 Canadian Election Study which measures electors' perceptions of parties' chances of winning the election. At first, this question appears inappropriate for reliable research. At least three important weaknesses are associated with the question. First, the formulation contains some ambiguities. Second, the literature provides many pieces of evidences regarding the limited capacities of people to deal with probabilities. Finally, responses to the 1997 Canadian Election Study are not consistent with researchers' expectations regarding the form of these answers. However, the question provides reliable answers. Two empirical tests demonstrate that respondents give sensible answers. First, their perceptions follow the evolution of polls, and these perceptions also affect their voting behaviour.