Quel avenir pour les combustibles fossiles ? Les avancées scientifiques et technologiques permettront-elles la poursuite d'un développement soutenable avec les énergies carbonées ?

Abstract

Abstract The world demand for primary energy keeps increasing and has little chance to decrease over the next decades, when considering the desirable and necessary development of the less wealthy countries. The two weightiest questions are to provide electricity to megalopolis, and fuels for transportation. In the present situation, fossil fuels (crude oil, natural gas and coal) provide 90 % of primary energy. Furthermore, hydrocarbons (crude oil and gas) are considered as closing energies to balance the level of demand. However, the link between fossil fuel consumption for one and a half century and climate change is now considered as highly probable. Crude oil and natural gas reserves are substantial, but limited. One half of the proven reserves of crude oil, and one third of gas reserves will be already used in year 2020. Gas reserves will be sufficient to reach 2050, but proven reserves of crude oil will not last until that year. Coal only, which is the largest source of CO2 and pollutants, provides enough reserves for several centuries. A considerable effort of scientific and technological research is the only way to reach the end of the century using oil and gas, plus a drastic effort for saving energy. This effort in research is discussed in the paper, but it does not provide until now an answer to the climate problem.