Quebec Independence and the Likelihood of Trade Conflict with the United States

Abstract

In event of separation of Quebec from Canada, one of most interesting aspects of attendant processes of restructuring will be of trade relationship between an independent Quebec and external markets. While context for Quebec is a global one, in practice its external markets are United States and Ontario. Pierre-Paul Proulx has shown impact of regional trade liberalization during past decade has been a strengthening of North-South relationship at expense of ties to Europe, Asia, and rest of world. (1) The share of total exports which are absorbed by United States has risen to over 80 percent and, of Quebec's trade with rest of Canada, Ontario absorbs in excess of 60 percent. In this paper Quebec-Ontario trade relationship will not be explored, but it must be remembered that, whatever feelings of its residents, government and major economic actors of Ontario have a powerful self-interest in limiting damage to mutual market access Quebec independence might bring. Initial Comments Quebec has, understandably, tried to diminish importance and controversy of potential disruption and conflict by referring to what is called in international law the succession of States, according to which new State succeeds preceding State with respect to rights and obligations arising from international law within its territory. The principle is of continuity. The Quebec government has decided to comply with practice of continuity of treaties. Consequently, it intends to maintain treaties concluded by Canada and international agreements to which Canada has adhered or has ratified and which continue to apply within Quebec's territory under rules of international law. (2) All states would like to have power to decide all matters of such importance unilaterally, but when national interests of other states are involved, such hopes are bound to be dashed. Furthermore, support for this position comes from Vienna on Succession of States in Respect of Treaties, which neither United States nor Canada has accepted. In opinion of former Assistant United States Trade Representative for Canada and Mexico, Charles E. Roh, Jr., An independent Quebec would not have any automatic rights or obligations under existing trade agreements [and] [t]he U.S. trade relationship with Quebec would be almost impossible to resolve until Quebec and Canada have resolved relationship between themselves. (3) Professor of Law Ivan Bernier argues until Vienna Convention is accepted by states, governing principle will be of tabula rasa, that is to say treaties binding predecessor state are no longer binding for successor state. (4) Not being a specialist in international law, I will leave this to those who are but, suffice to say at this early moment in process, it is not possible for Quebec government to assume access to trade agreements such as Canada-U.S. Auto Pact, North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), or even World Trade Organization on conditions identical to those of original negotiations will be extended automatically; in fact, depending on intensity of positions taken by U.S. economic interests, an independent Quebec may have hard bargaining in its future. (5) Finally, neither Auto Pact nor NAFTA is formally a treaty and relevance even of Vienna Convention is not clear. Resolution of economic aspects of an independent Quebec's trade relations with United States is, prior to specification of legal situation, inherently a speculative exercise. While it is conceivable Canada and United States will choose to grant Quebec full access to NAFTA and Auto Pact, it is also conceivable Quebec will have to renegotiate every important clause of both of these agreements. …