Quasi periodicities of extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River basin, China

Abstract

Daily precipitation data of 148 measuring stations in the Yangtze River basin (P.R. China) for the period from 1961 to 2002 have been analyzed to detect quasi periodicities in the frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation events. Extreme precipitation events of duration 1-day and 10-day were defined in terms of 90th percentile threshold exceedances for each station. The time series were standardized, averaged and detrended for each subbasin. Distinct temporal agglomerations of Gaussian peaks in the smoothed time series for all subbasins were detected for certain years. Quasi periodicities features in the time series were analyzed by means of spectrum analyses. Characteristic differences were found for the subbasins with typical significant quasi periodicities in the 2–3 and 3–4 year ranges. Wavelet analyses revealed that the stability of the observed quasi periodicities over time also varied between the subbasins. This results in various degrees of confidence that can be placed on the future extrapolation of Fourier emulations. Our extrapolations suggest occurrences of peaks in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events for most subbasins around the years 2012–2013 and 2017–2018 even though major differences between the subbasins are expected.