Quarterly Model of the Finnish Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets – a Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

This paper reports estimations of models of the long-run demand-supply structure in the Finnish pulpwood and sawlog markets. The methodology is based on Johansen’s multivariate cointegration method. Cointegration tests between the elementary variables in the two markets indicate cointegration in both VAR systems. Weak exogeneity of wood price and quantity variables for both sawlogs and pulpwood is rejected, as was expected. On the other hand, weak exogeneity is accepted for the pulpwood import price, sawnwood and pulp export prices, and the interest rate. Identification of economic structure in the models is successful for both demand relations, whereas further work is called for in modelling short-run private timber supply.KeywordsInterest RateExport PriceCointegration AnalysisPrice ExpectationNIPF OwnerThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.