Abstract
AbstractRecent years have witnessed a growing availability of high‐frequency indicators which can be used to forecast future economic activity. This paper shows how some of the widely known monthly economic indicators at present available in Italy can be used in a systematic and coordinated manner to forecast the main variables of the National Accounts. In order to reduce as much as possible the amount of judgment in the analysis of the business cycle, a model‐based approach is adopted. Thus, a pseudo macro‐econometric model of the Italian economy is built, which can be used to produce forecasts one semester ahead of the last National Accounts data release. The model can be used autonomously as well as in combination with the Bank of Italy's quarterly econometric model.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
