Quarantine and the risk of COVID-19 importation.

Abstract

Using a stochastic model, we assess the risk of importation-induced local transmission chains in locations seeing few or no local transmissions and evaluate the role of quarantine in the mitigation of this risk. We find that the rate of importations plays a critical role in determining the risk that case importations lead to local transmission chains, more so than local transmission characteristics, i.e. strength of social distancing measures (NPI). The latter influences the severity of the outbreaks when they do take place. Quarantine after arrival in a location is an efficacious way to reduce the rate of importations. Locations that see no or low-level local transmission should ensure that the rate of importations remains low. A high level of compliance with post-arrival quarantine followed by testing achieves this objective with less of an impact than travel restrictions or bans.