Abstract
The development patterns of both historical and contemporary demographic transitions are essential in understanding the outcomes of age structure changes among the countries. Existing literature analyzing demographic transition as a precursor to population ageing does not classify countries or regions worldwide by the scale and dynamics of those processes. The aim of this paper is to identify and describe the differentiation of quantum and tempo effects of changes taking place during the demographic transition through classification of sub-regions and selected countries worldwide. The results of this research, based on the historical vital statistics starting from as far as 1736 and future projections until 2100, feature how sub-regions and selected countries in the world are differentiated in terms of the scale and dynamics of the demographic transition process. The analysis reveals the fact that majority of sub-regions in the world tend(ed) to undergo long transitions lasting over 70 years, though contemporary demographic transitions demonstrate higher intensity and higher maximal rates of natural increase. African sub-regions are expected to experience relatively long processes of declining birth and death rates and estimated to complete their demographic transition in 90 years on average. The fastest processes, however, are observed in South America and Eastern Asia where some countries like China, for instance, completed their transitions in just 50 years. The scale and dynamics of demographic transition processes can serve as the ground for further research of challenges and development opportunities resulting from ageing societies during consequent post-transitional stages.
Highlights
Demographic transition is perhaps one of the most prominent events of population development in the modern history of mankind
Population ageing will eventually knock at the door of each society and the demographic transition being the forerunner of the ageing process is a very important subject for analysis
Rowland, referring to Notestein as the originator of the demographic transition theory distinguishes the classical pattern of the transition process through four main stages as follows: pre-transitional stage characterized by high birth and death rates; second stage of early transition when the death rates start to decline while birth rates remain high resulting in a rapid population growth; third stage of late transition when birth rates start to fall as well; and the post-transitional stage characterized by already low birth and death rates
Summary
Demographic transition is perhaps one of the most prominent events of population development in the modern history of mankind. That was the force that encouraged a remarkable population growth which spread around the world as a result of migration It was for the very first time in history when it became possible to refer to the world’s population as a single entity reacting to one dynamic process but with a different extent (Davis 1945). Every country in the world at some point is affected by the demographic transition It is a process of transformation of demographic patterns manifested by the changes in the levels of mortality, fertility and the age structure of individual populations (Pavlik 1980). The demographic transition has distinctive outsets and developments in different countries resulting in the process of population ageing. Existing literature analyzing demographic transition as a precursor to population ageing does not classify countries or regions worldwide by the scale and dynamics of those processes. The scope and dynamics of transition processes can serve as the ground for further studies of challenges and development opportunities resulting from ageing societies
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