Quantitive HAZOP and D-S evidence theory-fault tree analysis approach to predict fire and explosion risk in inert gas system on-board tanker ship

Abstract

Tanker ships carry volatile cargo, presenting inherent risks of fire and explosion. Inert gas systems (IGS) are pivotal in mitigating risks by displacing oxygen in cargo tanks. However, failure of IGS components may lead to fatal consequences such as loss of life and marine pollution. This paper prompts a systematic approach integrating Quantitative Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) analysis under D-S (Dempster–Shafer) evidence theory and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to predict and quantify the fire and explosion risk associated with IGS malfunction on tanker ships. The methodology systematically evaluates failure probabilities, and consequences using HAZOP to identify critical scenarios. D-S evidence theory is employed to address uncertainties and incorporate expert knowledge into the analysis. FTA is applied to model fault propagation and assesses the likelihood of fire and explosion events based on the identified failure scenarios. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology, illustrating effectiveness in identifying high-risk scenarios and providing insights for enhancing operational safety minimising the risk of IGS on tanker ships. The findings show that the risk of fire and explosion in the inert gas system due to the high concentration of oxygen entering the tank was found to be 2.86E-01. Besides its robust theoretical background, the findings of the paper provide the utmost contribution to ship crew, ship inspectors, HSEQ managers and safety professionals for proactive risk mitigation strategies, contributing to the advancement of safety management practices in the maritime industry.