Abstract
The global land surface cover is undergoing extensive changes in the context of global change, especially in the Loess Plateau, where ecological restoration policies have been vigorously implemented since 2000. Evaluating the impact of these policies on land cover is of great significance for regional sustainable development. Nonetheless, there are few quantitative assessment studies of the impact of ecological restoration policies on land use and land cover change (LULCC). In this study, a relative contribution conceptual model (RCCM) was used to explore the contribution of the policies to LULCC under the influence of natural background change, which was based on the Markov chain and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model. The results show that LULCC is influenced by ecological restoration policies and the natural environment, of which the policies contribute about 72.37% and natural change contribute about 27.63%. Ecological restoration policies have a profound impact on LULCC, changing the original direction of LULCC greatly. Additionally, these policies regulate the pattern of LULCC by controlling the amount of cropland as a rebalanced leverage. These findings provide useful information for facilitating sustainable ecological development in the Loess Plateau and theoretically supporting environmental decision-making.
Highlights
The global land surface cover is undergoing extensive changes in the context of global change, which have profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems [1,2,3,4,5]
Grassland degradation and expansion coexisted during 1990–2000 because the grassland was widely distributed in the Loess Plateau and was mixed with other types
A relative contribution conceptual model (RCCM) was used to separate policy effect from potential nature, and the status of Land use and land cover change (LULCC) under no-policy and policy scenarios was simulated by the future land use simulation (FLUS) model and Markov chain
Summary
The global land surface cover is undergoing extensive changes in the context of global change, which have profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems [1,2,3,4,5]. The Grain for Green program (GFGP) implemented by the Chinese government is one of the largest ecological restoration programs in the world and aims at transforming cropland to forest and grassland [22]. These ecological restoration policies provide a variety of environmental benefits, such as increasing greening [23,24], creating wildlife habitats [19,25], and storing carbon [26], but are controversial because of some of the adverse effects on regional ecological environment [21,27]. It is necessary to assess the effectiveness of ecological restoration policy and balance the favorable and adverse effects timely
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