Quantitative spleen and liver volume changes predict survival of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis

Abstract

To assess the value of quantitative spleen and liver volume changes in predicting the survival of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). This institutional review board-approved single-centre study included 89 PSC patients with baseline and follow-up liver imaging studies and laboratory data between 2000 and 2018. Change in spleen, total and lobar liver volumes, and lobar-to-total liver volume ratio was compared between patients with and without adverse outcome (liver transplantation, transplant waiting list, and death). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and Kaplan-Meier analysis were performed to identify the volumetric threshold for prediction of outcome and show how these thresholds predict survival, respectively. A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. The present cohort included 53 men (60%), with mean age of 42 years at baseline. The only volumetric parameters with significant differences in change between patients with and without adverse outcome were spleen volume (p<0.001) and left-to-total liver volume ratio (L/T; p=0.025). The probability of transplant-free survival at 36 months was 59.1% versus 11.9% for patients with spleen volume change <50 ml versus ≥50 ml, respectively (AUC=0.731); and 61.3% versus 13.8% for patients with L/T change <0.04 versus ≥0.04, respectively (AUC=0.638). The patients with changes below the cut-off in both spleen volume and L/T, had a higher probability of transplant-free survival at 36 months (76.8%), compared to those with change at or below the cut-offs in one or both of these two parameters (36.7%, 15%, respectively; p=0.001). Spleen volume change and L/T change might be useful biomarkers for prediction of transplant-free survival in patients with PSC.