Quantitative simulation of the water-energy-food (WEF) security nexus in a local planning context in indonesia

Abstract

Abstract The process of planning and evaluation for local development, especially in the critical sectors of water, energy and food (WEF) should be conducted using a holistic, integrated approach in an attempt to bring the improvement in water, energy and food security in a region. System dynamics models are one of the tools for simulation and assessment of the system-wide impacts caused by local interventions. This research develops a stock-flow diagram (SFD) of WEF security in a local context to be used in analysing the impacts of implementing three planned policy interventions in Karawang Regency, Indonesia. STELLA Professional software is employed to build the SFD and conduct simulation of the WEF security nexus, and is based on a previously developed qualitative causal loop model of the same system (the Karawang WEF security (K-WEFS) model). In the quantitative SFD, four scenarios are developed and assessed in this study; (i) population growth changes; (ii) agricultural land conversion rate changes; (iii) changes in the development of artificial ponds and solar energy; and (iv) per-capita resource consumption changes. The results show several interesting findings related to the WEF security nexus, available resources per person (APP) and self-sufficiency levels (SSL) of resources in business as usual conditions and under planned interventions. Potentially unanticipated detrimental indirect impacts of policy interventions are highlighted. This dynamic support tool could be applied in other local regions to improve the evaluation and planning process of water, energy and food sectors in a holistic manner.